Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT Quick QuoteALGT - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on May 7 after market close.

ALGT has a promising earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the four preceding quarters and missing in one, the average beat being 34.56%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current-quarter loss has widened to 84 cents per share from 43 cents in the past 60 days.

Let us take a look at the factors that are likely to have influenced ALGT’s performance in the quarter under review.

The surge in air travel demand is expected to boost passenger revenues in the first quarter of 2024.

Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled service is likely to increase 0.4% year over year, per our estimates. Our model projects capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) to rise 4.9% from the year-ago reported figure. Our model expects the load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) to increase 1% year over year, with the surge in capacity being more than the increase in traffic.

Fuel expenses are likely to have hurt the bottom line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Even though fuel prices have come down from the highs witnessed a year ago, the same has remained at an elevated level. Our model estimates the average fuel cost per gallon for the March end quarter in 2024 to be $2.85, lower than the $3.20 reported in the fourth quarter of 2023.

What Our Model Says

Our model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ALGT this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ALGT currently has an Earnings ESP of -49.49% and Zacks Rank #3.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Highlights of Q4

Quarterly earnings per share came in at 11 cents against the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 67 cents. Operating revenues of $611 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $601.5 million but decreased marginally on a year-over-year basis.

Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (91%) of the top line, fell 1.5% on a year-over-year basis. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled service grew 3.2% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) rose 5.7% from the year-ago number.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on their first-quarter 2024 earnings.

Expeditors International of Washington(EXPD Quick QuoteEXPD - Free Report) is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2024 results on May 7 before market open. EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +6.39% and Zacks Rank #2.

We are impressed with Expeditors' efforts to reward its shareholders through dividend payments and share buybacks. EXPD is looking to cut costs to drive the bottom line in this weak demand scenario. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD’s first-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 2.8% upward over the past 60 days.

Euronav NV currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.94% and a Zacks Rank #3. EURN will release its first-quarter 2024 results on May 8.

Euronav is headquartered in Belgium. Favorable oil tanker rates are supporting the stock’s growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EURN’s first-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised upward by 6.52% over the past 60 days.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.